The Unreasonable Upside Hypothesis

What if you knew that your next few hours’ work could produce something with a lifetime’s value? Would you approach things differently?

In most jobs the average result matters. Consistency matters.

If you’re working on a factory line then there’s no upside to making an amazing widget. As long as it meets specifications it’s good enough. And if it’s below standard then it can cause serious difficulties.

Applying this mindset to creativity is a huge mistake. When you’re aiming for “artistic” output then the script is completely flipped.

The lowest mark available has a hard boundary at 0 for a complete failure. But there’s no maximum score for a great idea or piece of art that’s new and unbelievably creative. 

This realisation already has the setup looking like a sweet deal. But that supposed minimum score of zero is misleading…

Your ‘failures’ never even have to see the light of day. You can just quietly scrap them and move onto the next thing.

So there’s literally no upper limit coupled with a non-existent downside.

That’s some seriously unreasonable upside. Not just slightly unbalanced — this is a flat out insane weighting towards one side.

And when you see something that asymmetric it’s your duty to lean into it. Exploit that loophole in the fabric of life for all you’re worth.

When you truly accept this, you’re freed.

You can give up chasing the idea that “everything needs to be great”. Instead give yourself the possibility of “one or two amazing things”.

One absolute triumph and a whole pile of spectacular ‘failures’ is a better outcome than a steady stream of mediocre offerings.

Think of the great scientific theories. The classic novels. The great paintings. If someone had done nothing else in their life but produce one single work of staggering genius we’d still revere their contribution to humanity.

One single piece of your creative output could end up being worth a whole lifetime’s work.

Most likely you won’t produce something that earth-shattering (but know that it’s possible!). More likely is that one piece can be worth a whole month’s work. Or something like that.

Unfortunately, people get fixated on the chance of success in a single creative act. They can see that the odds are stacked against them if everything rests on this one roll of the dice. So they do the sensible thing when confronted with a rigged game — walk away and refuse to play.

But they’ve missed the insight that the universe has twisted the system in your favour at a much deeper level. This is gambling without any consequences.

What the great creatives understand is that the universe keeps on handing you a new pile of chips. All you’ve got to do is lay them down on the table over and over again. It doesn’t matter that that you’re usually going to lose. You can ‘lose’ as often as you like and it doesn’t matter. Whereas every win is real and true.

So there’s no reason not to roll the dice again and again and again. Until the end of eternity. Undaunted by failure.

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