Positions Not Predictions

Predicting the future is an impossible task. If that weren’t the case then we’d all be stock market millionaires.

This seemingly leaves us with a dilemma — either make that dangerous prediction and stand or fall on whether it turns out to be right or wrong; or refuse to commit altogether.

But there’s a middle way that allows us to make a better choice…

Ed Smith once said about his post as a selector for the England cricket team: “the job of a selector is to take positions but not to make predictions”.

I think this is a great attitude to hold in life more generally.

First up, it combines strength with humility. It’s a way of playing effectively with the world while still acknowledging our fundamental helplessness in the face of the full forces of nature, or the power of history.

Strength without acknowledgement of greater external influences that shape our lives leads to hubris. But when we recognise that we’re swept along by forces greater than ourselves we mustn’t let this push us into a place of thinking that we have no agency. That leads to apathy and loss of hope.

“Positions without predictions” puts you in the driving seat. But it’s driving in the sense that you might ride an elephant.  You have significant influence on direction and speed if you’re content to encourage and guide. But you’ll fail the moment you try to force or control things.

In exactly the same way, as we’re carried along by the currents of time’s stream we can’t prevent it when we’re swept inexorably in a particular direction. But we still have agency to paddle a bit within the flow, or try and move from one big current into another.

“Positions without predictions” also frees us up from the need to know the future or to get everything right.

It’s an encouragement to simply make a decision and then move forwards from there. You put your efforts firmly behind your choice — even as you acknowledge you can never be sure it was the right one.

I’ve experienced the effects of this most clearly when improvising music. Tentatively playing the “right” notes sounds rubbish. Whereas playing “wrong” notes with passion and total commitment often sounds great.

This insight from music carries across to life more generally. Deliberate action with intention and conviction behind it produces happy outcomes. 

This requires us to make strong decisions, but then hold them loosely. To be open to the idea that we may be wrong, or that the situation may change.

Life is simply a series of moments and all we can do is act appropriately in each one. So the sequence goes something like this:

Take a definite position based on your current understanding of the situation. Act with conviction to implement this plan. Then be alive in the coming moments and reassess when necessary.

The certainty you have when you first commit to your position is not one that that says “I’m sure I’m right and I’ll never change my mind”. It’s merely certainty that says “This is what I’ve chosen, so I’m going to do it with conviction”.

You’re free to spin on a dime whenever you like and choose again. Then you’re just as certain on that new path.

No judgement on whether the previous choice was wrong. No shame or regret when you change direction. No explanation or apology required.

This isn’t about constant vigilance and harsh self-judgement. There’s no active search for signs that what you’re doing is wrong. It’s just that you’re not actively blocking information so that you can cling to your idea of how you’d like the world to be.

You’re simply sensing the changing moments and naturally moving with them. Open to seeing the world how it is. And changing your mind easily and joyfully whenever the situation demands it.