Noticing The First Tree

In a tight spot we look around for a genius to show us the way out. Much better to ask how we got here.

That could have helped the people of Easter Island.

You know the one. 

Alone in the middle of vast tracts of the Pacific ocean. The island dotted with monstrously sized stone heads. 

Now Easter Island used to be covered with trees. Enough resources for everything they need.

But as they used them up unthinkingly… They eventually arrived at the point where someone made the catastrophic decision to chop down the last tree.

And when I hear this story told, it mostly focuses on that final terrible choice: do they cut down the last tree? And did they realise they were condemning themselves by doing this?

But focusing on this dilemma — and the stupidity of cutting down the last tree — misses the much bigger issue.

At that point you can look around all you like for a genius to find a solution. It’s not going to help.

Once you get down to the last tree then you might as well go right ahead and cut it down. It’s not like stopping at that point is going to get you back to a forest. The fatal mistake was made much earlier on. Way before anyone could see there was anything wrong. 

Even by the time you’re down to five trees then your fate is already sealed.

There are no good decisions left to you at that point.

Once you’re in a position that bad then no amount of genius… No magic new technology… can help you escape. There simply is no solution to be found.

But if you act earlier to avoid getting into that position in the first place then you don’t need to be a genius — or even close. You don’t need any fancy technology.

So the time to think very carefully was way back at the first tree.

It seems like such a small thing. To cut down one tree out of thousands.

But once you set the wheels in motion on a particular path, then the easy thing is just to continue down that path. And the longer you travel along the path, the deeper the wheel ruts get. And the harder it is to shift direction later.

But it’s worse than that…

The more you get locked in to one path, the harder it becomes to see other options. So it’s not just harder to change direction — it’s harder to even conceive that other directions are possible!

Doing the right thing when you come to a ‘first tree’ isn’t easy. You need to recognise it as a first tree in the first place… Then you need to take the time to think carefully…

Even after all that you’ll most likely need to make and act on hard decisions.

Because when bad long-term decisions get made it’s almost always because they were easier and more obvious in the moment. It’s going to take strength the other way even when you’re aware of the situation.

Just hold tight to the idea that although those decisions are still hard and may be very unpopular at that point… They’re still way easier and less unpopular than where you get to later on.

But how do you notice you’re coming up to a ‘first tree’? 

Because, let’s face it: life doesn’t alert you with a convenient flashing neon sign. You think you’re just going about normal life and you don’t realise you’re at a tipping point when the future can go one way or another.

One way to do this might be by deliberately asking yourself that question on a regular basis:

“What if this is a ‘first tree’? What if I set this one thing in motion and then imagine it carrying on indefinitely?”

Not easy to remember to do. And not easy to follow through on.

But maybe that would have huge impacts later on…